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Week Ahead – Fed to cut interest rates, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold

Investors are split between a 25 and 50bps Fed rate cut BoE expected to stand pat, but resume cuts in November BoJ to also stay on hold, focus to fall on future hike signals Let the Fed cuts begin Since the July US employment report, which sparked fears of recession, investors have been trying to figure out the size of the potential rate cut the Fed will deliver at its September gathering, and the moment of truth has finally come.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD remains above 200-day SMA

AUDUSD battles with 50-day SMA Stochastics point north but RSI flattens AUDUSD had a bullish start on Thursday, with the price flirting with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6670. Momentum signals are neutral-to-bullish, with the RSI appearing to be heading south, while the stochastic oscillator has reversed higher after the bullish crossover within its %K and %D lines in the oversold area.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD strictly capped by 50-day SMA

AUDUSD finds support at 0.6640 Stochastic and MACD keep downside momentum AUDUSD held in losses for the second week in a row, dropping beneath the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and near key support area of 0.6640 before turning neutral. The stochastic oscillator in the daily chart continues to lose ground in the oversold region, while the MACD is moving well below its trigger line, reducing chances for a meaningful recovery.
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Daily Comment – Dollar and equities rebound from NFP-led losses as focus turns to US CPI

US jobs report adds to slowdown fears but provides no clarity about Fed policy Dollar whipsaws while stocks tumble as ‘September effect’ takes hold But risk sentiment improves ahead of US CPI report and ECB decision Signs of optimism after NFP bloodbath Markets began the second week of September in a somewhat more upbeat mood as US slowdown jitters were put on hold even as inflation data out of China pointed to persistently weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
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Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bounces off 0.6700 but looks weak

AUDUSD flirts with weekly downtrend line Stochastics create bullish cross But RSI holds near neutral level AUDUSD has reversed to the upside after the rebound off the 0.6700 round number with strong barrier coming from the weekly descending trend line around 0.6750. Over the last couple of weeks, the market has been developing back and forth of the aforementioned diagonal line, looking weak to change the outlook to a more positive one.
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Daily Comment – Equities weakness lingers as focus remains on US data

Equities remain on the back foot as key US data on the menu today ADP, jobless claims and ISM Services could prove market moving Dollar’s mixed performance continues, yen benefits OPEC+ production rumours fail to push oil prices higher US data releases in the spotlight Equity markets continue to exhibit a rather unexpected fragility as second tier data like Wednesday’s JOLTs job openings resulted in another negative session in most stock indices around the globe.
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Daily Comment – Wall Street tumbles amid September blues

Yen and franc gain, aussie the main loser Wall Street tumbles on risk-off September start ISM mfg. PMI rekindles economic concerns Oil collapses on prospect of Libyan accord Risk aversion prevails The US dollar outperformed most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, losing ground only versus the traditional safe havens such as the yen and the franc.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

USDJPY aims to break above 20-SMA ahead of the NFP report. Will it be successful this time? USDCAD stops at 5-month low as the focus turns to the BoC rate decision AUDUSD hangs near 8-month high; Australian GDP is on the calendar   Nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMIs --> USDJPY USDJPY is looking for fresh buying as it is still striving for a close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and beyond the 146.00 number.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD meets the weekly falling trend line

AUDUSD loses some momentum Stochastics ease from overbought area RSI heads north above 50 level AUDUSD is battling with the weekly downtrend line near the 0.6770 level after the failure attempt to rise above the 0.6820 high. The stochastic oscillator is diving from the overbought region; however, the RSI indicator is pointing marginally up slightly beneath the 70 level.
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Week Ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Traders see decent chance for 50bps Fed cut in September Powell adds extra importance to jobs data, NFP awaited BoC decides on rates, third consecutive cut is fully priced in Aussie traders lock gaze on GDP numbers   Bets for double Fed cut remain elevated Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.
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Daily Comment – Nvidia earnings fail to buoy markets, focus turns to US data

Nvidia slumps in after-hours trading as earnings don’t excite Equities mixed as attention turns to US data for direction Kiwi outperforms, euro slips on soft German and Spanish CPI figures No post-Nvidia boost for equities Nvidia’s much anticipated earnings results for the second quarter failed to deliver on the very high expectations even as the chip giant saw its revenue more than double from a year ago.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD unlocks new 8-month high above 0.6800

AUDUSD increases 7% in August 20- and 50-day SMAs post bullish cross Stochastic in overbought region RSI still beneath 70 area AUDUSD hit a new eight-month high above the 0.6800 round number, breaking the long-term descending trend line to the upside. Following the bearish spike on August 5, the pair gained over 7%. Technically, the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are ready for a bullish crossover.
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Daily Comment – Markets cautious as Nvidia earnings and key US data loom

Dollar pauses slide as jobs and inflation data awaited Yen pulls back but hawkish BoJ signals keep it elevated Wall Street awaits Nvidia, oil retreats on demand worries Dollar awaits key data for direction The US dollar extended its slump against all its major peers on Tuesday, as in the absence of any top-tier data and shocking headlines, investors continued to digest Powell’s dovish stance at Jackson Hole.
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Technical Analysis – Will AUDUSD continue its bullish wave trend?

AUDUSD holds in tight range near its recent high RSI and MACD point down AUDUSD has been stuck within a range bound pattern in the near term defined by the 0.6794 and 0.6760 levels, although the price has been maintaining a bullish tendency since the beginning of August. However, the technical oscillators suggest a potential downside retracement.
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Daily Comment – Rate cut euphoria tempered by geopolitics as oil surges

Mood turns cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty in Libya and Gaza Fears of supply disruptions drive up oil prices, S&P 500 closes lower China concerns also weigh but European stocks turn positive as data awaited Geopolitical risks take over as oil rallies Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday and the US dollar consolidated as investors turned cautious ahead of the week’s main events amid renewed fears about disruptions to oil supply.
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Week Ahead – PCE inflation eyed as Fed lays groundwork for September cut

Focus to stay on the Fed as PCE inflation to be week’s main highlight Eurozone inflation data to be crucial for ECB rate cut hopes Australian and Tokyo CPI, plus Canadian GDP also on the agenda Will PCE inflation disappoint dovish expectations? The Fed’s long-anticipated dovish pivot is upon us and markets are bracing for the first US rate cut of this cycle at the September 17-18 meeting.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD loses some positive momentum

AUDUSD gains more than 6% after bottoming at 0.6350 Immediate resistance near long-term downtrend line Technical oscillators suggest bearish correction AUDUSD has posted an impressive bullish rally after the bearish doji candle on August 5, adding more than 6%. The price has overcome the simple moving average lines and is currently slightly below the weekly downtrend line, which represents the highs from January 2023. However, the technical oscillators indicate a downside retracem
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Market Comment – Dollar under pressure ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

Stocks in the green again as investors await the Jackson Hole gathering Economists look for strong Fed easing in 2024 despite recession talk dissipating Dollar remains on the back foot against most currencies Aussie fails to benefit from hawkish minutes; loonie could suffer from weak CPI Stocks still in the green Stocks continue to enjoy green sessions as the market is counting down to Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chairman Powell.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD retains positive mood

AUDUSD stays in recovery mode; flirts with 0.6700 Short-term bias remains on the positive side   AUDUSD received fresh buying on Monday to almost reach the 0.6700 number following Friday’s close above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The pair has been trending up since the plunge to 0.6346 in early August, having completed two green weeks.
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