US natgas rises more than 2% on warmer weather view

Reuters

US natgas rises more than 2% on warmer weather view

3:17 chiều giờ GMT, 19 Tháng 9 2024

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Recasts, adds comment and updates prices

By Rahul Paswan

Sept 19 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures settled up more than 2% onThursday on warmer-than-normal weather forecasts that could boost cooling demand and increase gas consumption by power generators to meet air conditioning needs.

That price increase came despite a federal report showing a slightly higher-than-expected weekly storage build last week.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.4 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at$2.348 permillion British thermal units (mmBtu), after dropping more than 2% earlier in the session.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 13.

That was above the 56-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 62 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 80 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

"The above normal temperatures definitely seems to be giving us a pop here," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, adding "there's still a lot of concern about the slow recovery of the Gulf of Mexico production."

Financial firm LSEG estimated 124 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks. The normal for this time of year is 89 CDDs. Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.8 billion cubic feet (bcfd) per day this week to 100.1 bcfd next week.

LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, at 101.7 bcfd this week to go up to 102.0 bcfd next week.

LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.

The CEO of U.S. natural gas producer EQT Corp on Wednesday said U.S. prices for the fuel will remain below $3 per million British thermal units in the short term.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged higher on Thursday morning as a ramp-up in Norwegian maintenance curbed supply. NG/EU

Meanwhile, Chesapeake Energy's $7 billion acquisition of rival natural gas producer Southwestern Energy is expected to close early in the fourth quarter.

	Week ended Sep 13 Actual	Week ended Sep 6 Actual	Year ago Sep 13	Five-year average Sep 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+58	+40	+62	+80
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,445	3,387	3,251	3,171
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	8.6%	9.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2023	Five-Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.26	2.34	2.70	2.66	3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.78	10.21	11.44	13.04	14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	13.22	13.3	13.92	14.39	14.31


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	20	19	12	18	58
U.S. GFS CDDs	124	132	125	123	89
U.S. GFS TDDs	144	151	137	141	147

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	102.1	101.7	102.0	103.5	96.5
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.0	8.0	7.7	N/A	7.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	110.1	109.8	109.6	N/A	103.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.0	2.2	2.2	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.2	7.1	7.2	N/A	6.0
U.S. LNG Exports	13.0	12.6	12.8	12.1	8.2
U.S. Commercial	4.8	4.7	4.8	4.7	4.9
U.S. Residential	4.1	4.0	3.9	3.8	3.9
U.S. Power Plant	39.4	40.0	40.0	42.1	36.0
U.S. Industrial	21.9	21.9	21.9	21.5	21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.1	5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Consumption	77.4	77.8	77.9	79.4	80.0
Total U.S. Demand	99.6	99.8	100.1	N/A	90.4

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam	Current Day % of Normal Forecast	Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual	2021 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	74	74	83	107	81
Jan-Jul	76	76	77	102	79
Oct-Sep	77	78	76	103	81


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Sep 20	Week ended Sep 13	2023	2022	2021
Wind	10	8	10	11	10
Solar	5	6	4	3	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	7
Other	1	1	2	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	46	41	38	37
Coal	16	15	17	21	23
Nuclear	18	19	19	19	20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.31	2.33
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.66	1.82
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.53	2.24
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.58	1.75
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	1.96	2.08
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.95	2.2
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	1.95	1.82
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.05	1.12
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.44	0.45

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL	39.5	37.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL	45.5	39.5
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL	37	24.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL	46.25	41
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL	19	19.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL	17.5	17.5

Reporting by Rahul Paswan and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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US natgas rises more than 2% on warmer weather view

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