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Stocks lap up Fed's fast 'recalibration', BoE up next

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Stocks lap up Fed's fast 'recalibration', BoE up next A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan After a typical skittish first-day reaction, world markets are on Thursday embracing the new Federal Reserve stance as insurance on the holy grail of a soft economic landing . Fed boss Jerome Powell described Wednesday's outsize half-point interest rate cut as a 'recalibration' rather than some panicky emergency, and investors are taking the move as a sign
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Why China's yuan may not follow the rate-cut playbook

BUZZ-COMMENT-Why China's yuan may not follow the rate-cut playbook Sept 19 (Reuters) - The Chinese yuan is appreciating Thursday in spite of bets on an imminent China rate cut , as risk-on follows the U.S. Federal Reserve slashing its policy rate Wednesday. Traders might get caught out if yuan appreciation extends. The consensus is clear that China now has a window to cut interest rates again ; Friday's monthly setting of benchmark one-year and five-year loan prime rates provides an opportunity
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China's yuan steady before key Fed meeting

China's yuan steady before key Fed meeting SHANGHAI, Sept 18 (Reuters) - China's yuan held steady against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as traders returned to work after the Mid-Autumn Festival break and ahead of the Federal Reserve's key rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which concludes later on Wednesday, is expected to kick off a U.S.
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China rate cut window opens as patience wears thin

BUZZ-COMMENT-China rate cut window opens as patience wears thin Sept 17 (Reuters) - The writing is on the wall: China's economic recovery is stalling and even robust external demand can't offset the domestic slump. Stronger stimulus can't be delayed further, as more global investors balk. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup on Monday downgraded their 2024 China GDP forecasts to below Beijing's 5% goal, joining a bevy of bearish brokerages.
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Fed hits easing week, China economy weak

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Fed hits easing week, China economy weak A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan After an extraordinary 30-month monetary squeeze designed to zap a post-pandemic inflation spike, the Federal Reserve is finally set to cut interest rates this week - and it's now only a matter of how much . With another set of weak industrial and retail readings from China on Saturday and the FBI on Sunday pursuing a second failed assassination attempt on Republican p
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China's yuan inches higher as Xi's call fuels stimulus hopes

China's yuan inches higher as Xi's call fuels stimulus hopes SHANGHAI, Sept 13 (Reuters) - China's yuan inched higher against a weakening U.S. dollar on Friday as President Xi Jinping's call to step up efforts to hit Beijing's annual economic growth target heightened expectations for more stimulus. Recent economic data shows the world's second-largest economy struggling, prompting analysts to expect more policy support to achieve Beijing's growth target of "around 5%" for this year.
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Hong Kong interbank rates deepen slide

Hong Kong interbank rates deepen slide SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Hong Kong interbank borrowing rates slid on Friday to hit milestone lows at tenors from overnight to one year, as investors anticipate U.S. rate cuts beginning next week. The overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) HIHKDOND= fell 14.5 basis points to a one-year low of 2.6531%.
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China Policy Watch-Affirmative action ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-China Policy Watch-Affirmative action ahead Sept 13 (Reuters) - President Xi Jinping on Thursday ramped up pressure on local governments to help achieve Beijing's GDP target for 2024. That sets the stage for more stimulus measures, and an anticipated cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio , possibly before China's Mid-Autumn festival break.
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FX options wrap - FX risks fade amid central bank cuts

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX risks fade amid central bank cuts G10 FX option implied volatility has fallen quite sharply since the U.S. NFP and CPI data removed much of the uncertainty about the U.S. rate path, which in turn, has aided a broader risk recovery. Benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility consequently trades new post data lows . However, o ne-week expiry options now include the U.S.
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U.S. Fed flashes up on the FX options radar

BUZZ-COMMENT-U.S. Fed flashes up on the FX options radar Sept 12 (Reuters) - Broader FX volatility risk premiums have fallen since the U.S. NFP and CPI data releases, with the exception of one-week expiries . These have surged due to the inclusion of the Sept. 18 U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision, which has the potential to trigger increased FX realised volatility.
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China's yuan steady after US CPI, focus switches to Chinese data

China's yuan steady after US CPI, focus switches to Chinese data SHANGHAI, Sept 12 (Reuters) - China's yuan held steady on Thursday against the dollar, which climbed overnight after data showed higher-than-expected U.S. core inflation, while traders looked to a slew of domestic economic data over the weekend for further catalysts. On the previous day the yuan had pulled ahead as markets pared back Donald Trump's chances of winning the White House, with investors still wary of the former U.S.
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FX options wrap - ECB, EUR direction, 13 billion, JPY 140, value

BUZZ-FX options wrap - ECB, EUR direction, 13 billion, JPY 140, value Initially tame U.S. CPI FX volatility risk premium was marginally higher before Wednesday's slightly softer than expected data, which makes a 25bpts U.S. rate cut more likely than 50bps next week. The pre data premium rise in USD/JPY came after more JPY strength took the pair closer to 140.00 in Asia , with other dates higher, too.
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Trump trades roiled after fiery debate as investors weigh chance of Harris success

UPDATE 4-Trump trades roiled after fiery debate as investors weigh chance of Harris success Updates prices, adds quote By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee and Rae Wee NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Investors scrambled to shift their positioning on Wednesday following a closely-watched debate between Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, as betting markets swung in Harris’ favor after the event.
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The EUR/USD directional bias according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT- The EUR/USD directional bias according to FX options Sept 11 (Reuters) - FX options thrive on FX volatility and rapid directional moves and, because they are forward looking, their price action can offer clues for the near-term outlook. Implied volatility serves as a proxy for the unknown but crucial element in option premiums: realized FX volatility.
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These options show U.S. CPI and ECB risk to EUR/USD

BUZZ-COMMENT-These options show U.S. CPI and ECB risk to EUR/USD Sept 11 (Reuters) - Implied volatility gauges the unknown, yet key parameter of an FX option premium - actual/realised FX volatility, so changes after overnight/next day expiry included Wednesday's U.S. CPI data and Thursday's European Central Bank policy decisions can offer clues about the expected FX reaction.
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Fiery debate gives Wall Street few new details on key issues

Fiery debate gives Wall Street few new details on key issues By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Suzanne McGee NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street remained on edge as a closely watched debate between Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris late Tuesday gave investors little clarity on key policy issues, even as betting markets swung in Harris’ favor after the event.
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USD/CNH shorts possibly complacent amid election focus

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-USD/CNH shorts possibly complacent amid election focus Repeats with no changes Sept 10 (Reuters) - Focus on the U.S. election should pick-up as markets look to the first presidential debate between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris set for Sept. 10, which could make USD/CNH an interesting currency pair to watch.
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USD/CNH shorts possibly complacent amid election focus

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-USD/CNH shorts possibly complacent amid election focus Repeats with no changes Sept 10 (Reuters) - Focus on the U.S. election should pick-up as markets look to the first presidential debate between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris set for Sept. 10, which could make USD/CNH an interesting currency pair to watch.
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FX options wrap - Looming event risks and FX expectations

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Looming event risks and FX expectations Sept 10 (Reuters) - Implied volatility has been on the back foot as FX volatility risk premiums were priced out in the wake of Friday's mixed U.S. jobs data, which left FX in familiar ranges. However, Wednesday's U.S. CPI data and a host of major G10 central bank policy announcements are limiting potentially deeper declines .
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Options show extent of FX risk from U.S. election debate and CPI

BUZZ-COMMENT-Options show extent of FX risk from U.S. election debate and CPI Sept 10 (Reuters) - Overnight expiry FX options now include Tuesday's U.S. election debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and Wednesday's U.S. CPI data, with related prices showing the extent of the perceived risk to FX. FX volatility is an unknown, yet a key parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a substitute.
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